Wake County lost 35,985 households — $3.01 billion in adjusted gross income — to other counties and states in the IRS’s 2022–2023 migration data. Durham took the largest single share, followed closely by Johnston County. These are moves recorded roughly two and a half to three years before publication, describing 2022–2023 conditions, not the present.
Where did households leaving Wake County actually go?
Ten destinations account for a large share of the total outflow, and they split into two distinct patterns: cheaper adjacent counties, and lateral or upmarket ones. The table below ranks the top ten by number of returns (households) leaving Wake.
| Rank | Destination county | Returns out | Individuals | AGI ($k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durham, NC | 3,465 | 4,950 | 260,032 |
| 2 | Johnston, NC | 3,410 | 6,568 | 228,759 |
| 3 | Harnett, NC | 1,425 | 2,837 | 98,338 |
| 4 | Franklin, NC | 1,371 | 2,774 | 105,955 |
| 5 | Mecklenburg, NC | 1,225 | 1,708 | 89,371 |
| 6 | Chatham, NC | 704 | 1,397 | 110,018 |
| 7 | New Hanover, NC | 681 | 1,015 | 85,231 |
| 8 | Guilford, NC | 620 | 962 | 34,270 |
| 9 | Orange, NC | 583 | 903 | 51,723 |
| 10 | Nash, NC | 465 | 881 | 25,850 |
Across all destinations, not just the top ten, Wake sent out 35,985 households, 59,753 individuals, and $3.01 billion in adjusted gross income in this window. At least 236 counties received one or more households from Wake, meaning the outflow is genuinely dispersed — the top ten are the concentrated part of a much longer tail.
What does “leaving Wake County” mean in this data, specifically?
It means a taxpayer’s mailing address changed from a Wake County county code to a different one between two consecutively filed federal returns. The IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) program builds this by matching Social Security numbers across filing years; each move is reported as a return (proxy for a household), an individual count (exemptions claimed, a proxy for people), and adjusted gross income on the later return, in thousands of dollars. It is not a listing, a closing, or a sale, nobody here is a “buyer,” and no figure on this page describes a real estate transaction. It is also not a stated reason — the IRS records the address change, not the motive behind it, and this page does not claim to know why any of these households moved.
Which destinations look like the cheaper, adjacent-county move?
Johnston, Harnett, and Franklin are the three that fit a cost-driven, stay-close-to-Wake pattern most cleanly. All three are immediately adjacent to Wake County, all three sent large numbers of households out of Wake, and none of the three appears anywhere near the top of Wake’s inbound list — the traffic runs mostly one direction. Combined, these three destinations alone account for 6,206 households and $433.1 million in adjusted gross income leaving Wake. This is the profile of a household trading proximity and Wake County institutions for more space and a lower cost of entry, though the IRS data cannot confirm that motive directly; it can only confirm the direction and size of the flow.
Which destinations look lateral or upmarket instead?
Chatham, New Hanover, and Mecklenburg don’t fit the cost-driven story. Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) is a larger, more expensive metro than Wake, not a cheaper one. New Hanover County (Wilmington) is a coastal relocation, not an adjacent commuter move. And Chatham County — bordering Wake to the southwest, home to Chapel Hill-adjacent growth and large new master-planned development — stands out enough to warrant its own look below.
What does the Chatham County pattern suggest for a move-up seller?
It suggests something closer to a lateral or upward move than a downsizing one. Households leaving Wake for Chatham reported an average adjusted gross income of $156,276 per return — the highest average of any destination on this list, and well above the $132,028 average AGI reported by households arriving in Wake from Chatham. In other words, the households leaving Wake for Chatham are, on average, wealthier than the households Chatham is sending to Wake in return. That is the opposite of what a simple cost-cutting narrative would predict, and the IRS data does not explain it — it could reflect new-construction pricing in Chatham’s master-planned communities, retirement timing, or something else entirely. This page states the pattern and stops there.
| Chatham County flow | Returns | Individuals | AGI ($k) | Avg. AGI per return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake → Chatham | 704 | 1,397 | 110,018 | $156,276 |
| Chatham → Wake | — | — | — | $132,028 |
Why is Durham different from every other destination on this list?
Because it is nearly balanced, not one-directional. Durham is the single largest destination for households leaving Wake, at 3,465 returns — but it is also the single largest source of households arriving in Wake, at 3,599 returns. The gap between those two figures is a net movement of only 134 households, small next to the scale of the traffic itself. That balance is a sign of two adjacent job markets and housing stocks that residents move between in both directions for reasons the IRS data does not capture, rather than a market either county is winning or losing on net.
Should a Cary seller read any of this as flight from Wake County?
No — and the county-level totals argue against it directly. Wake County gained a net 3,843 households overall in this same window, but that gain came entirely from out of state; measured only against other North Carolina counties, Wake lost 3,149 households on net. The outbound list on this page describes where departing households went, not a county in decline. A seller deciding whether to stay should weigh this outbound pattern against the much larger inbound one documented at where Wake County movers come from, not read it in isolation.
What can’t this data tell you about your own move?
It cannot tell you why any of these households left, only that they did and where they went — the IRS records an address change, not a motive. It has no detail below the county level, so it cannot say which Chatham subdivision or which Durham neighborhood absorbed these households. County pairs with fewer than 20 returns are suppressed into an unranked residual, understating the true number of small or unusual destinations beyond the top ten shown here. And it counts tax filers, not the full population — a household that does not file a federal return, or that moves without a change that prompts one, is not necessarily captured.
Who should not use this page to decide where to move?
Anyone looking for a stated reason behind these moves should look elsewhere — this dataset does not supply motive, and this page has been written to avoid implying one it does not have. Anyone comparing specific neighborhoods or specific listings should use MLS-sourced, current data instead; this is a county-level historical record, not a live market signal. And anyone treating the Chatham figures as proof of an upmarket trend, rather than an open pattern with more than one possible explanation, is reading more certainty into this data than it supports.
For the full picture of Wake County’s inbound and outbound flows, see where Wake County movers come from. For a closer look at the largest single outbound flow, see Cary vs. Johnston County. For sellers weighing a move-up purchase rather than a move out of the county, see move-up buyer guidance. For the broader market context, see the market overview.
More market reporting
- The Fastest-Selling Neighborhoods in Cary, NC
- Cary, NC Days on Market by Price Range
- Cary, NC Price Per Square Foot by Subdivision
- New Construction vs. Resale in Cary, NC
- How Fast Do Cary, NC Townhomes and Small-Lot Homes Sell?
- What Do Homes Under $400,000 in Cary, NC Actually Look Like?
- Cary neighborhood studies
About the author
Cameron Smith writes Move Up NC’s real estate guidance for Cary, Morrisville and the North Carolina Triangle.
Editorial note: This article reports market data for a defined period and area. Figures describe closed sales in that window and are not a forecast or a valuation of any individual property.